Thursday, December 13, 2012

IPCC AR5 draft report LEAKED: Strong evidence for solar forcing of climate

"The admission of strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing changes everything. The climate alarmists can’t continue to claim that warming was almost entirely due to human activity over a period when solar warming effects, now acknowledged to be important, were at a maximum. The final draft of AR5 WG1 is not scheduled to be released for another year but the public needs to know now how the main premises and conclusions of the IPCC story line have been undercut by the IPCC itself." - IPCC reviewer Alex Rawls

PLEASE RESHARE THIS - and download your copy while you can.
The IPCC or someone acting on their behalf will likely issue a cease and desist. The server is taking a hammering at the moment so downloads are slow. Once I have the whole lot I will rehost somewhere if they remove the original. [Original site HERE]

The entire chapter in question may be yet removed in the final , and just as with the previous IPCC reports, there are already clearly lots of political shenanigans at work. That cat however, is out of the bag. They have admitted that there is very likely strong solar forcing at work in the detected temperature trends. Do go and read the full article at WUWT. As Alec says, it's a game changing admission.

After the key chapter (ch7) the chapter following (chapter 8) appears to complete ignore the evidence and claims made in chapter 7, asserting that the premised solar effects are based just on TSI (Total Solar Irradience) when the evidence presented shows that this claim is now irrelevant. Whilst it is nir surprise the left hand and the right hand of an IPCC report doesn't know what the other is doing, this is also the usual alarmist refrain for dismissing solar influences.

The summary for policymakers will of course attempt to emphasise complete certainty and hysterical alarmism as it has done before. It's also the only part of the report alarmists seem to read. Similarly, press releases will (as they have in the past) give a completely different picture to what the report actually says. As they did with the press release for the SREX IPCC report - the Guardian, Independent etc repeated bogus assertions of coming "extreme weather" catastrophe implicating human causes when the report itself actually showed that no anthropogenic link could be found. See Pielke's treatment of this HERE.

Anyone however with a shred of integrity will have to admit that this is a big problem for the alarmist cause. The solar effects could be responsible for anything up to half of the recorded warming (and that's before we get to the issue of how many temperature data sets have been fraudulent adjusted to introduce additional warming trends). That's enough to kill the catastrophic versions of AGW dead, dead, dead.

In the meantime:


banned said...

So that was why they (IPCC) were not invired to Dohar, I was wondering.

Anonymous said...

A quick scan of the SPM reveals a number of other items. Most important is that missing heat is mostly in the Southern Ocean. Also tacit admissions that AR4 got in wrong on reducing preciptation in the tropics, hurricanes, extreme weather events and the importance of aerosols.

rolo_tamasi said...

I see has gone...

Katabasis said...

Rolo - there's now a torrent running with all the files. If you have a torrent client (like utorrent) you can cut and paste this in - just use the 'add torrent from url' option:


cosmic said...

"That's enough to kill the catastrophic versions of AGW dead, dead, dead."

No. The rackets, the bloodsuckers and the taxes will be the hard thing to get rid of. This is political. The 'science' was just a gambit which has largely worked.

This thing is already morphing into sustainability, climate justice and dealing with the Peak Oil crisis. Ocean acidification and the plight of the coral atols haven't lived up to their early promise, but their riders haven't been dismounted and though they are lagging the field, they are still hopeful.

Excuses will be found to persist in the scams and the gravy train.

Ian R Thorpe said...

No matter how much evidence is presented the global warming zealots will never admit they were wrong.

We've more chance of convincing doorstep evangelists that the book of Revelations is not going to come true any time soon

Dol said...

You know those drafts are available to anyone who signs up as a reviewer? That's a lot of people. I guess you're not going to trust the word of any one of the other bzillion involved people who are just a bit puzzled about the odd claims that were made?

Not that it matters a scooby either way, because no-one's doing diddly squat about climate change. No point in really getting uptight about it any more. There's plenty of fossil fuels to keep things burning at an accelerating rate for at least a hundred years (peak oilers are MASSIVELY wrong). As a species, we're completely incapable of not digging it up and burning it - there's just too much money in it.

So whatever games get played out in the meantime and whatever battles anyone thinks need to be fought over the politics, it isn't going to make any difference to what gets burned. I don't think that's cos either side in the "climate wars" won. It turns out there was never really any realistic way to expect us to organise an effective massive global response. People are just the not built that way, maybe.

I pray you're right and that all those pesky scientists really are just . I really do.

Hey, you never know - we might all get taken out by an asteroid no-one spotted. Those things can plummet into the earth so fast no-one will even have time to say whu... before impact. Crazy ol' universe.